27 April 2018

The economists called constraints of economic growth in Russia


The new economic cycle will begin in May. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for socio-economic development of the country is expected.
This time it will be presented at least a month later than the deadline. Its indicators depend on the goals that the President will designate in the coming years. On them and the Ministry of Finance will be guided when making the budget.

Sanctions confused the forecast

"Slowly but surely" - that's the way the country's economic growth forecast is set for the next three years. Is that a long time or a short one? Comparing these figures, for example, with the annual growth rate of the world economy, it clearly is not enough. Such figures, unfortunately, will not solve the initially set goal of achieving by 2020 the growth rates of the Russian economy above the global. In other words, our goal is to advance the development of the Russian economy.

But, as you can see, 2.1 - 2.3 percent is the result of inertial forecasting, when on the basis of the existing in the moment of improvement analysts outline an upward straight line of economic growth. Justification of these figures is, for example, inflation almost reached the target levels (less than 4 percent), a new practically working budgetary rule, when part of the proceeds from the sale of oil is sent to the Reserve Fund or the implementation of the global trend, the program "Digital Economy". 

The steps taken are obviously leading in the right direction, but is this enough to achieve the set goals?